Here are my picks (if I ruled the world), my predictions (what I think will actually happen) and Ebert’s picks (just for fun comparison!)
best picture
what I would pick: The Social Network or Black Swan
what will probably win: The King’s Speech
what Ebert says: The King’s Speech
direction
who I would pick: David Fincher for The Social Network
who will probably win: I really don’t know on this one. It’s a total grab bag, but it’s likely to go to whoever won best picture.
what Ebert says: Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
*note: I’m really sad that Nolan did not get a director’s nod for Inception. I happened to love it, but I understand why people did not love the screenplay. Regardless, he directed the fuck outta that movie.
screenplay (original)
what I would pick: The King’s Speech
what will probably win: The King’s Speech
what Ebert says: The King’s Speech
screenplay (adapted)
what I would pick: The Social Network
what will probably win: The Social Network
what Ebert says: The Social Network
*note: Why the fucking fuck is Toy Story 3 in this category? Great film, but an adapted screenplay? No. Just no.
best actress (lead role)
who I would pick: Nathalie Portman.
who will probably win: Annette Bening
what Ebert says: Nathalie Portman
best actor (lead role)
who I would pick: Colin Firth
who will probably win: Colin Firth, although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a James Franco upset!
what Ebert says: Colin Firth
best actress (supporting role)
who I would pick: Hailee Steinfeld (who really should have been nominated but not won for leading role… how the fuck was her part in True Grit not a leading role? The star of that movie was not Jeff Bridges, even though he rocked it as usual!)
who will probably win: Melissa Leo
what Ebert says: Hailee Steinfeld
best actor (supporting role)
who I would pick: Jeremy Renner. He brought it in The Town. He was exceptional.
who will probably win: Christian Bale (Which I’m fine with. I’d also be happy if Geoffrey Rush won.)
what Ebert says: Geoffrey Rush
cinematography
what I would pick: Black Swan, Inception or The Social Network (if for nothing else, that beautiful tilt-shift scene just killed me!) If I had to pick only one, I’d go with Black Swan.
what will probably win: True Grit
what Ebert says:True Grit
So that’s the basic set of awards I care about. The only other two I’m really, really pulling for:
best documentary: I haven’t seen any of the others. I don’t care, I want Exit Through the Gift Shop to win. I have no idea if it will.
best music: The Social Network. That soundtrack was epic, it added layers of brilliance to the experience of watching that film which was good to begin with. I am terribly excited that Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor have signed on for the soundtrack to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. You can sign me up for that right now.
will you be watching tomorrow? what would your picks be if you were an Academy voter?