list of oscar predictions 2011

By bonnie, 26 February, 2011

Here are my picks (if I ruled the world), my predictions (what I think will actually happen) and Ebert’s picks (just for fun comparison!)

best picture
what I would pi
ck: The Social Network or Black Swan
what will probably win: The King’s Speech
what Ebert says: The King’s Speech

who I would pick: David Fincher for The Social Network
who will probably win: I really don’t know on this one.  It’s a total grab bag, but it’s likely to go to whoever won best picture.
what Ebert says: Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
*note: I’m really sad that Nolan did not get a director’s nod for Inception. I happened to love it, but I understand why people did not love the screenplay. Regardless, he directed the fuck outta that movie.

screenplay (original)
what I would pick: The King’s Speech
what will probably win: The King’s Speech
what Ebert says: The King’s Speech

screenplay (adapted)
what I would pi
ck: The Social Network
what will probably win: The Social Network
what Ebert says: The Social Network
*note: Why the fucking fuck is Toy Story 3 in this category?  Great film, but an adapted screenplay? No. Just no.

best actress (lead role)
who I would pi
ck: Nathalie Portman.
who will probably win: Annette Bening
what Ebert says: Nathalie Portman

best actor (lead role)
who I would pick: Colin Firth
who will probably win: Colin Firth, although, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a James Franco upset!
what Ebert says: Colin Firth

best actress (supporting role)
who I would pi
ck: Hailee Steinfeld (who really should have been nominated but not won for leading role… how the fuck was her part in True Grit not a leading role? The star of that movie was not Jeff Bridges, even though he rocked it as usual!)
who will probably win: Melissa Leo
what Ebert says: Hailee Steinfeld

best actor (supporting role)
who I would pi
ck: Jeremy Renner.  He brought it in The Town. He was exceptional.
who will probably win: Christian Bale (Which I’m fine with. I’d also be happy if Geoffrey Rush won.)
what Ebert says: Geoffrey Rush

what I would pick:
Black Swan, Inception or The Social Network (if for nothing else, that beautiful tilt-shift scene just killed me!)  If I had to pick only one, I’d go with Black Swan.
what will probably win: True Grit
what Ebert says:True Grit

So that’s the basic set of awards I care about.  The only other two I’m really, really pulling for:

best documentary: I haven’t seen any of the others. I don’t care, I want Exit Through the Gift Shop to win.  I have no idea if it will.

best music: The Social Network.  That soundtrack was epic, it added layers of brilliance to the experience of watching that film which was good to begin with.  I am terribly excited that Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor have signed on for the soundtrack to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. You can sign me up for that right now.

will you be watching tomorrow?  what would your picks be if you were an Academy voter?


  1. I’m so thrilled Natalie Portman won. She was genius in that role. As for best picture, I have to agree with The King’s Speech being the winner. It was really exceptional. Black Swan was wonderful too, but it was Natalie that made that movie great, not just the movie itself (okay, maybe the movie itself a bit too, but you know what I mean, yes?).

    And fingers crossed for your little home endeavor!

  2. bonnie says:

    Brandi – I understand what you are saying, but I would also argue that the chemistry between the two male leads and their friendship/bond really carried “The King’s Speech” for me, the writing was spot on, but the actors made it compelling. Not that it wasn’t an excellent film, but I felt that Black Swan was an equal excellent film, difference being that it was more noticeably constructed as dependent on Nathalie’s performance. So it’s harder to distill what made it a great movie from HER making it great. I think she well-deserved her Oscar, but I think the film overall would have also deserved Best Picture.

    And I feel like “The Social Network” was nearly a perfect film. I think everything about it was so well-executed, that it also would have been a fine choice. I was secretly really hoping for the upset with this. So I’m a little bit disappointed by the selection of “The King’s Speech”. I almost feel like it was the safest choice and that either of the others would have required a defense of some kind because the stories they were telling were very particular to their own little universes and therefore, a lot of people couldn’t as easily relate.

  3. bonnie says:

    Oh and thanks for keeping your fingers crossed for me! Within a few days if I get good news, it will be up here, there and everywhere online because I’m SOOOOO excited! 🙂

What do you think?

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